THE MODEL ROOM / ROLLING FIVE DAYS
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Survival estimates and winning profit are separate.
Changes since the previous evaluation
Source coverage across all eight apps
The evaluator reads each app’s latest available forecasts. It cannot invent unlisted matchups or missing model inputs. A successful evaluation does not mean every source covers all five days.
| Source | Fixtures | Model updated ET | Coverage |
|---|
Sport rules and historical confidence bands
Win rates below are disjoint historical confidence bands, with sample counts. Team sports use reconstructed base Elo; live adjustments have not been validated by these results. Tennis match chronology is unverified.
| Sport | Screening floor | Evidence scope | Historical win rate (sample) |
|---|
Shared exposure and historical co-movement
These are considerations, not allocation limits. Shared players, teams, tournaments and model assumptions can create related risks. Amounts below follow your confirmed browser plan.
| Group | Shared source | Qualifying picks | Planned cost |
|---|
Tennis is excluded from historical daily correlations because its match chronology is unverified. These statistics do not quantify the probability of simultaneous losses in your current plan.
| Sports | Shared historical days | Daily error correlation |
|---|
Automatic paper performance tracking
| Policy / sport | Entries | Settled | Pending | Hypothetical net profit | Settled return |
|---|
How the rolling evaluation works
Every 30 minutes, the service evaluates both sides of each available pregame fixture from that evaluation’s timestamp through exactly 120 hours later. Started games leave the view. The window can span six calendar dates.
Planning survival is a conservative policy estimate: the minimum of live probability minus 3 percentage points (5 for tennis), the historical band’s lower 95% Wilson endpoint, season win rates with at least 20 observations, and supported adverse model scenarios. Sparse bands pool from the sport’s screening floor upward; at least 50 observations are required. These are provisional rules, not a validated live calibration or profit backtest.
Qualifying prices must leave at least 8% return if the contract wins and 3¢ planning expected profit per contract, including rounded taker fees for 100 contracts. Smaller position plans are checked again after fee rounding. Quotes must show whole-contract depth. The ceiling is an entry limit, not a forecast of future price.
Primary default positions use 1% of example bankroll; secondary and MLB value positions use 0.5%. There are no sport or time-window allocation caps. The page reports total exposure and shared risks; spending beyond the example bankroll produces an available-cash warning without imposing a cap. MLB value picks are not labeled high survival.
Source injury reports, quarterback/pitcher status, team-tagged news, available weather and tennis workload are aggregated automatically. Supported injury, quarterback and pitcher scenarios are run through the saved pregame model. Unknown starting quarterbacks or pitchers block qualification inside 90 minutes of start. Missing full lineups or weather are labeled unavailable; they are never treated as confirmed. Weather alerts use rain ≥60% or wind ≥25 km/h for review priority, with no invented probability adjustment. Confirm current price and settlement rules before entry. Confirmation resets when the relevant forecast or price changes. All evaluations and confirmations are informational; this page does not place orders or track your actual holdings. A game leaving the window does not release real committed capital.
Fuzzy name matching requires at least 86% string similarity on both opponents and an 8-point gap from competing pair/event matches. Exact aliases take precedence. Date and sport checks still apply. Any fuzzy match receives a red card notice showing the names and similarity scores. Similarity is not a probability of correct identity.
Winning profit assumes normal $1 settlement; losing contracts normally pay $0. Cancellation, postponement, tie and retirement provisions vary by market. Review the contract’s rules. No settlement or capital recycling is assumed at estimated game end.
Bankroll settings stay in this browser. The spreadsheet is a separate refreshed snapshot with its own editable example bankroll. Download again after an evaluation.